Earnings Volatility,Earnings Persistence,and Post-Earnings Announcement Drift
- 2015年第8卷 
【中文摘要】许多经验研究表明，盈余波动性的增大会降低盈余的持续性，进而降低盈余的可预测性。市场因不能识别盈余持续性的这种差异而发生盈余公告后漂移（post-earnings announcement drift，PEAD)异象。本文的研究表明，盈余波动性的增加确实会降低盈余的持续性；但当盈余的波动幅度处于两个极端时盈余的可预测性则处于低位，这与Dichev和Tang(2009)、Cao和Narayanamoorthy(2012)的结论不同。与Cao和 Narayanamoorthy(2012)的结论相一致，我们也发现了基于盈余波动性的盈余公告后漂移异象。本文还发现，公允价值会计实施后盈余的持续性进一步降低，并导致更严重的盈余公告后漂移异象。 【Abstract】Recent empirical studies have shown that an increase in earnings volatility will reduce earnings persistence and thereby earnings predictability. Because the market cannot identify this change in earnings persistence, post-earnings announcement drift occurs. In this paper, we find that an increase in earnings volatility can indeed reduce earnings persistence,but earnings predictability is lower only when earnings are at the two extremes of the fluctuation range. This result is different from the findings of Dichev & Tang(2009)and Cao & Narayanamoorthy (2012). Nevertheless, consistent with Cao & Narayanamoorthy(2012) , we have also found post-earnings announcement dritt based on earnings volatility. In addition, we find that the implementation of fair value accounting standards has further reduced earnings persistence, and has resulted in larger post-earnings announcement drift.