A Study of Consistency between National and Regional GDP Data
- 2014年 
【中文摘要】国内生产总值（GDP)是反映一个国家的经济规模和结构的最重要的宏观经济指标。我国GDP核算采用分级核算制度。近十年来，我国GDP核算的国家值与地区汇总值的差距呈现明显的扩大趋势，两者之间已存在明显的系统误差。从生产角度看，第二产业增加值特别是其中工业增加值的地区汇总值明显大于国家值。从支出角度看，固定资产形成的地区汇总值明显大于国家值。利用经济普查资料对照分析发现，GDP国家层面的数据在第三产业增加值核算方面可能存在着较为严重的漏算，而大多数地区的第二产业增加值则有被高估的倾向。利用Benfod法则和计量模型对GDP数据质量进行检验的结果表明，无论是国家层面还是地区层面均未发现明显的有意弄虚作假的证据。上述问题的产生，既有经济管理体制方面，也有统计制度方法方面的原因。因此，坚持科学的政绩评价，推进统计管理体制改革以及进一步完善GDP核算制度等措施有助于改善GDP数据的衔接性问题。 【Abstract】GDP is the most important indicator of macro-economy，which indicates the scale and structure of a country’s economy. Our country has adopted a hierarchical GDP calculating system. Over the past decade，the gap between the GDP calculated nationally and that totaled regionally has become increasingly widened and an obvious system error has been detected. From the perspective of production，the added value of secondary industry totaled regionally，especially that of manufacturing industry，is significantly larger than that calculated nationally. From the perspective of expenditure，the value of fixed assets totaled regionally is significantly larger than that calculated nationally. Through a contrastive analysis of the data of economic census，it is found that there is likely to be a very serious omission in the data of national GDP with regard to the added value of tertiary industry. However，the added value of secondary industry has tended to be overvalued in most regions. Using the Law of Benford and its calculation model，this study examines the quality of GDP data. The result shows that no significant fraud is found in the data at both the national and regional levels. The inconsistency between national and regional GDP data has resulted from either the economic management system or the statistical methods. It is concluded that we can enhance the degree of consistency between GDP data at different levels if we persist in asessing our economic achievements in a scientific way，deepen the reform of our statistical management system，and improve our GDP calculating methods.