Contingency Reserves Management and Potential Welfare Improvement in BRICS：A Study under the Conditions of Partial Risk Diversification and Full Risk Diversification
- 2014年 
【中文摘要】金砖国家应急储备的建立，可以有效增强金砖国家抵御金融危机的能力。通过检验金砖国家的风险分散程度，在金砖国家应急储备背景下构造可变比例准备金指数，该指数可衡量成员国应对危机的能力，并对完全风险分散下成员国的潜在福利改进空间进行测算。研究表明，1990—2012年间，金砖国家有13%的GDP冲击通过储蓄平滑掉，87. 8%的GDP冲击没有通过合理渠道平滑掉，风险分散程度较低；在部分风险分散条件下，大部分金砖国家成员国应对危机的能力显著增强，从而验证了金砖国家应急储备建设的有效性；在完全风险分散条件下，金砖国家存在很大的福利改进空间，这为金砖国家更进一步金融合作提供了理论依据。从金砖国家整体角度来看，应急储备的建设应遵循“CDS”原则，即建设应急性储备、发展性储备和稳定性储备。我国参与金砖国家应急储备则应遵循主导性、渐进性、共同性的“三性”理念。 【Abstract】BRICS can effectively enhance their ability to weather financial crises by establishing contingency reserves. By examining the degree of risk diversification of BRICS，we can create a reserve index with variable ratios in the context of contingency reserves，by which their ability to cope with crises can be measured and their roomfor improvement of potential welfare under full risk diversification can be calculated. Our results indicate that from 1990 to 2012，the degree of risk diversification is low since 13% of the shocks to GDP are smoothed through the channel of savings and 87.8% of the shocks to GDP are not smoothed through reasonable channels. Under the condition of partial risk diversification，most BRICS countries have significantly enhanced their ability to cope with crises ， which verifies the effectiveness of establishing contingency reserves within BRICS. Under the condition of full risk diversification，there is still much room for BRICS to improve their welfare. These findings serve as a sound theoretical foundation for further financial cooperation among BRICS. Taking BRICS as a whole，the establishment of contingency reserves should follow the principle of “CDS”，i. e. to establish Contingency，Development and Stability reserves. China's participation in establishing BRICS contingency reserves should follow the principles of domination，gradual progress and consistency.