Behavior,Cause and Governance: A Study of the Power of Rationality in a Lost Market Based on Emotional Reactions of Institutional Investors and Securities Analysts and Stock Market Responses
- 2013年 
【中文摘要】作为市场理性力量的代表，机构投资者与证券分析师能否有效平抑市场情绪，维护市场的稳定和理性是学界需要加以关注的问题。以2003年至2010年的沪深两市上市公司作为样 本，对机构投资者和证券分析师情绪应对行为进行实证研究，可以发现，证券分析师和机构投资者与个人投资者一样深受投资者情绪影响，这所谓的“市场理性力量”基于市场情绪的非理性行为进 一步加剧市场波动性。“政策市”及资金驱动型市场、急功近利的投机氛围、短期业绩评价机制和粗放式的行业发展模式等，是我国信息交易者非理性的市场根源。但如果证券分析师和机构投资者也和散户投资者一样成为噪声交易者，这时市场就缺乏足够市场影响力和资金实力的理性力量去平抑市场情绪，对冲市场整体性的非理性行为，进而纠正市场的定价偏差，由此将导致资产泡沫 迅速膨胀之后的泡沫破灭甚至是市场崩溃。因此，应从加强理性投资者教育，建立长期评价机制和平衡市场博弈格局等方面进行有效治理，以促进信息交易者平抑市场情绪，维护市场理性。 【Abstract】 As the representatives of market rationality，can institutional investors and securities analysts effectively balance market emotions and the market thereby maintaining market stability and rationality? This is an issue that scholars on stock market research should pay more attention to. This study takes all the listed A-shares of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets during 2003 to 2010 as samples and investigates the emotional reactions of institutional investors and security analysts. The results show that，as well as individual investors，institutional investors and securities analysts are deeply affected by investor emotions. The irrational behaviors of these two informed investors under the influence of market emotions therefore exacerbate the fluctuation of the market. The causes behind the market of irrational behaviors of informed investors include such factors as the policy-driven and capital-driven markets，speculative atmosphere，short-term performance evaluation mechanisms and extensive development paterns. If our security analysts and institutional investors behave in the same way as individual investors becoming noisy investors，the market will suffer from an inadequate influence and the power of rationality based on capital，which will lead to failure to stabilize market emotions and to remedy the overall irrational behaviors of the market thereby redressing the pricing imbalance of the market. This will result in a rapid expansion of property bubbles ,which will soon lead to a total blast of the bubbles or even a complete collapse of the market. It is therefore suggested that governance should be carried out by stepping up educational programs to enable more people to become rational investors，establishing long-term evaluation mechanisms，and striking a balance between the gaming patterns of the market, so that informed investors can help stabilize market emotions and maintain a high level of marke rationality.