A Study of Relationship between Money Supply and Inflation in New Economic Structures
- 2013年 
【中文摘要】2003 -2008年期间，中国经济和货币供应都高速增长却没有出现通货膨胀，传统上货币供应量与通胀之间的关系被弱化。经济中实体财富和金融资产总量的对比变化、货币深化和商品金融化与自然资源紧缺三个方面，扰乱了传统货币供应与通货膨胀之间的传递关系。基于修正剑桥方程式的模型设计和实证检验表明，金融市场的货币需求造成货币分流，使货币供应与通货膨胀之间的因果关系被打乱。同时，价格传递的脉冲分析表明，在新的经济结构下成本推动型的通胀压力大多被传递到投资领域，而非在消费品领域引致CPI上升。货币供应量与价格释放之间呈现出一种全新的机制。针对这种情况，在宏观政策方面，仅仅依靠货币政策是难以两全的，财政政策在调节投资结构、限制投资规模方面具有比货币政策更强的针对性。产业政策方面则应更为 严格地执行节能减排降低单位产值耗能的要求，降低对资源的粗放型使用，发展循环经济。 【Abstract】The rapid growth in China's economy and money supply did not produce inflation from 2003 to 2008, which shows that the traditional relationship between money supply and inflation was weakened. This study reveals that the traditional relationship between money supply and inflation has been interrupted by three factors, i.e. the changes in ratio between real real wealth and financial assets, monetary deepening and commodity financialization, and natural resource scarcity. Empirical studies based on Adjusted-Cambridge Equation model conclude that money demand of financial market results in money split-flow thereby disturbing the relationship between money supply and inflation, our impulse analysis of price transmission shows that in new economic structures cost-driven inflationary pressure has been mainly transmitted to investment rather than to consumer goods which would push up CPI. This reveals a totally new transmission mechanism between money supply and prices. In such contexts, this paper shows, in terms of macro policies, monetary poly is not enough but fiscal policy works better in adjusting investment structures and controlling investment scales. It is suggested that, in terms of industrial policies, the policy of energy conservation and emission reduction must be more strictly implemented to reduce energy consumption per unit of output, to limit extensive use of resources and to promote circular economy.