European Fiscal Union： Role， Limitations and Forecast
- 2012年 
【中文摘要】当前欧元区成员国的债务动态性质存在三种类型，财政联盟对不同类型成员国的意 义不同。财政联盟若仅着眼于强化财政纪律，改善预算状况，已无法扭转债务超标和恶化趋势。 要避免联盟陷于崩溃，须继续深化和强化联盟，围绕降低实际利率和给成员国减债进行创新性制 度设计，将联盟拉回债务可持续的轨道。动态计算显示,在成员国基本盈余比率改善2个百分点、 经济增长率提高1个百分点、实际利率降低1个百分点和给成员国减债幅度约7000亿欧元的环境 下，可实现成员国债务比率的按期达标。 【Abstract】There are three types of debt dynamic path in the Euro zone, and the fiscal union has different significance for different types of the member states. It is hard to achieve sustainable debt path relying solely on fiscal discipline. To avoid the European Union collapse, it is necessary for the Union to lower real interest rates and relieve debt of the member states. Assuming that in the target period the member states' primary surplus ratio improves by two per cent, economy grows by one per cent, real interest rates lowers by one per cent and the Union can relieve member countries debt by about 7,000 hundred million Euros, it is likely to bring the union debt ratio back to its safe lines.