Impacts of unconventional gas development on China's natural gas production and import
- 经济学院－已发表论文 
China has become a net importer of natural gas as a result of rapidly increasing consumption in recent years. A production peak would exist since natural gas is an exhaustible resource. As conventional natural gas production peak approaches, the development of unconventional natural gas is attracting increasing attention. China's unconventional natural gas reserves are abundant, but exploration is still in its infancy stage. Thus, with the increasing quest for low-carbon development and China's natural gas price reform, studying the impacts of unconventional gas development on China's natural gas supply and price reform under different scenarios has practical significance. In this paper we predict China's natural gas production trends in different scenarios and forecast natural gas demand. This paper concludes that the exploitation of unconventional natural gas will greatly improve China's annual natural gas production, and delay the production peak year. This is important for China's natural gas supply security as it can decrease dependence on imported gas. Furthermore, as the cleanest fossil fuel, it will enable more time and space for renewable energy development given the many costs and controversies surrounding its development in China. ? 2014 Elsevier Ltd.