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Term Structure Forecasting: No-arbitrage Restrictions Versus Large Information set

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Term Structure Forecasting_ No-arbitrage Restrictions Versus Large Information set.pdf (1.019Mb)
Date
2013-11-08
Author
Carlo A. Favero
Linlin Niu
Luca Sala
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  • 王亚南院-工作文稿 [102]
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Abstract
This paper addresses the issue of forecasting the term structure. We provide a unified state-space modelling framework that encompasses different existing discrete-time yield curve models. Within such framework we analyze the impact of two modelling choices, namely the imposition of no-arbitrage restrictions and the size of the information set used to extract factors, on the forecasting performance. Using US yield curve data, we find that both no-arbitrage and large info help in forecasting but no model uniformly dominates the other. No-arbitrage models are more useful at shorter horizon for shorter maturities. Large information sets are more useful at longer horizons and longer maturities. We also find evidence for a significant feedback from yield curve models to macroeconomic variables that could be exploited for macroeconomic forecasting.
URI
https://dspace.xmu.edu.cn/handle/2288/56819

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