房价、银行信贷与货币政策 ——以宏观审慎的视角

Abstract

最近，不管是学术界，还是决策层，资产价格波动的宏观影响都受到越来越多的关注，这在很大程度上是由于最近证券市场的暴涨暴跌。次贷危机后，流动性过剩、房价泡沫问题得到了更大关注。理论方面，这一领域的大多数研究关注资本市场，房价的作用并没有得到同等程度的重视。最近几年，由于房价暴涨，房价泡沫取代股市泡沫成为社会各界和媒体关注的焦点。 与现有众多研究不同，本文从银行信贷入手，沿着物价稳定和金融稳定两条主线，分析房价波动与货币政策之间的关系。关注的重点不是房价泡沫测度和预测，而是另外两个问题：⑴房价是否可以作通货膨胀先导指标；⑵房价盛衰周期对银行稳定的影响。从逻辑上讲，如果房价是通货膨胀的先导指标，房价...

The macroeconomic implications of asset price fluctuations have received increasing attention in academic and policy circles recently, in large part due to the recent boom–bust bubbles in the equity and now in the housing markets. Most studies in this area have focused on financial asset prices, while the role of house prices has not been explored to the same extent. After subprime cri...