我国高等教育普及化进程及其影响因素——基于时间序列趋势外推模型的预测

Abstract

我国高等教育在学总规模和毛入学率在过去20多年里不断增长,增长幅度的波动由剧烈转向平稳。未来影响我国高等教育发展的外部因素将对其规模的扩张起到推动作用。通过构建时间序列趋势外推模型对未来十年我国高等教育规模进行预测发现,2025年我国高等教育在学总规模很可能达到5187.08万人至5929.88万人,将比目前(2015年末)多1000万人至2000万人。在2018—2022年之间,我国高等教育毛入学率很可能突破50%。这也就意味着未来3到6年内,我国高等教育将进入到普及化阶段,而我们需要为此做好准备。

For the past more than twenty years, the total population at higher institutes and gross enrolment ratio has been increasing, and the volatility has transformed from strong fluctuation to stationary fluctuation. In the future, the external factors which influence the development of higher education will promote the expansion of higher education. The Trend Extrapolation Model has been built to predict the development of higher education scale over the next decade. The prediction results show that the total population at higher institutes in 2025 will probably reach 51.8708 million to 59.2988 million which will increase 10 millon to 20 million students than it in2015. Between 2018 and 2022, the gross enrolment ratio of higher education in China will probably pass 50%,which means China will probably enter into the phase of universal higher education in the next three to six years.From now on, we should prepare for the change which will be brought by the probable transition.