两岸生产分工、贸易依赖与经济周期协动性

Abstract

研究目标:两岸生产分工和贸易往来对于两岸经济周期协动性的传导机制。研究方法:基于一个典型经济体间实际经济周期模型框架的冲击响应分析与实验模拟分析; 。研究发现:两岸经济结构仍然存在较大差异,其他经济体才是中国台湾宏观经济波动的主要外部冲击来源;两岸技术冲击相关性对于两岸经济周期协动性的形成发; 挥了关键作用;不论在双边贸易,还是双向投资方面,两岸经济关系都仅处于浅层相互依存状态,两岸经济周期协动性也以间接性、表象性为主要特征。研究创新:; 将动态随机一般均衡分析范式应用于两岸经济周期协动性问题研究。研究价值:揭示了两岸经济相互依存的内在特征,为旨在推动两岸经济关系良性发展的政策设计; 提供了新的参照系。

Research Objectives: Investigating the transmission mechanism of; business cycle comovement between mainland and Taiwan of China. Research; Methods: Estimating a typical international real business cycle model; for economic interaction system across the Taiwan Strait. Research; Findings: Firstly the main external shock to Taiwan of China; macroeconomy has come from the rest-of-the-world, rather than its most; important export and outward investment destination, mainland of China.; Secondly the correlation of technological impulse has played a key role; on cross-strait business cycle comovement. Thirdly there's been just; surface interdependence between mainland and Taiwan of China,and the; cross-strait business cycle comovement can only be characterized as; indirect and ostensible. Research Innovations: Introducing the dynamic; stochastic general equilibrium analytic framework into the research on; the issue. Research Value: Revealing the intrinsic nature of the; cross-strait economic interdependence,and providing those policy makers; for development of cross-strait economic relationship with a new; reference frame.