A Quantitative Analysis of the Cross-Strait Trade Revenue in the Context of Global Value Chain
传统贸易统计方式无法准确反映两岸贸易实际收益情况,易于造成对两岸贸易问题认知误区。本文依据2016版世界投入产出数据库,以增加值出口作为两岸贸易收益的衡量指标,测算两岸2000—2014年双方贸易收益规模及其构成。结果显示：1.扣除中间品贸易造成的重复计算因素后,两岸贸易收益实际水平低于传统方法计算的结果;2.大陆与台湾在两岸贸易中的实际收益水平都不断提升,但台湾获利水平远高于大陆;3.台湾GDP约一成（9.98%）来自于大陆市场的贡献,但大陆市场拉动台湾经济增长的作用尚未充分发挥;4.两岸贸易中获利产业主要集中在计算机、电子和光学产业等制造业领域,但服务业的获利水平也逐步提高。未来两岸经贸交流合作应突破传统“三角贸易”的局限,充分发挥大陆内需市场优势,在新兴产业与现代服务业领域拓展增加值出口。The traditional trade statistics methods can not accurately reflect the actual situation of the cross-Strait trade income, but can easily lead to the misunderstanding of trade problems. Based on the 2016 world input-output database, this paper uses the value-added export as the measure merit of the cross-Strait trade income to calculate the scale and composition of the trade gains between the two sides from 2000 to 2014. The findings show that after deducting the repeated calculation factors caused by the trade of intermediate goods, the actual level of the cross-Strait trade income is lower than that of traditional methods. Even though the real income in bilateral trade keeps rising, the Taiwan＇s income level is much higher than that of the mainland. On the other hand, about 10% of Taiwan＇s GDP is attributable to the contribution of the mainland market, but the role of its market in stimulating Taiwan＇s economic growth has not yet been fully played. Moreover, while the profit industry in bilateral trade is mainly concentrated in the manufacturing sectors such as computers, electronics and optical products industries, the profit level of service industry has gradually improved. The cross-Strait economic and trade exchanges and cooperation in the future should break through the limitations of the traditional ＂triangular trade＂, give full play to the mainland domestic market advantage and expand value-added exports scale in the emerging industries and modern service industries.