An Analysis of the Latest Trend of ＂Taiwan Independence＂ Forces after the Democratic Progressive Party＇s Return to Power
- 台研院－已发表论文 
在当前两岸关系结构性矛盾短期内无法真正化解,以及外部势力介入持续存在的情况下,“台独”势力在台湾的社会基础就无法得到根本性消除。在此特殊情势下,“台独”势力在未来相当长的时期内,将会在岛内政治生态中持续存在,并对两岸关系和平发展产生重大的干扰与破坏性作用。而绿营重返执政后,随着“台独”势力在岛内的政治、经济、社会等生存环境大为改观,“台独”势力的组织形态、世代更替以及运作模式都出现了新的发展态势,“台独”风险及其社会影响也大为增强。尽管“台独”的发展趋向受制于多种因素,但中国大陆的崛起以及两岸实力对比的显著变化,仍然是制约“台独”势力冒险与冲动的根本性因素。The social basis of ＂Taiwan Independence＂ forces in Taiwan cannot be fundamentally eliminated in the event that the structural contradictions of cross-Strait relations cannot be resolved in the short term and the external forces are involved in the persistence. Under this special situation, the ＂Taiwan Independence＇forces will continue to exist in the political ecology of the island for a long period of time in the future and have a major disturbance and destructive effect on the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations. After the return of the green camp to the ruling, with the ＂Taiwan Independence＂ forces in the island＇s political, economic, social and other living environment greatly changed, the organizational form, generation change and operation mode of ＂Taiwan independence＂ forces have emerged a new development trend, the risk of ＂Taiwan Independence＂ and its social impact has also greatly enhanced. Although the development trend of ＂Taiwan independence＂ is subject to a variety of factors, the rise of the mainland and the significant changes in the cross-Strait power contrast are still fundamental factors that restrict the adventures and impulses of ＂Taiwan independence＂ forces.