On Economic Effect of RCEP and TPP in Taiwan——Base on the Simulation of GTAP Model
- 台研院－已发表论文 
运用全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)从宏观经济和产业发展两个层面对台湾加入RCEP和TPP的经济效应进行定量评估。研究发现,台湾既加入RCEP又加入TPP可以最大程度地促进其经济增长与产业结构优化;在二者不能兼得的情况下,台湾加入RCEP比加入TPP更有利于其经济增长和产业竞争;若二者都未加入,台湾的经济将持续恶化,传统优势产业将遭受巨大冲击。基于此,根据台湾自身现状及国际局势,台湾参与区域经济整合的合理路径应为"先两岸、后周边、再RCEP、最后TPP"。Using the model of the Global Trade Analysis Project this paper makes a quantitative assessment of the economic effect of RCEP and TPP in Taiwan from the perspective of the macro-economy and industrial development. Findings show that the RCEP and TPP that Taiwan joins can greatly promote its economic growth and optimize its industrial structure. On the other hand,if Taiwan becomes a member of RCEP it will prove to be more conducive to its economic growth and industrial competition than a member of TPP. However,the failure to join the both will possibly continue to deteriorate its economy and its traditional competitive industries will suffer a huge impact. Therefore,in terms of the Taiwan current situation and the international economic structure,this paper argues that the reasonable path that Taiwan is supposed to take in participating in regional economic integration should be the "Cross-Strait first,neighboring second,then RCEP and finally TPP".