工资黏性、经济波动与中国通货膨胀目标预期冲击——基于黏性动态随机一般模型的研究

Abstract

笔者根据DSGE模型,首次全面考虑价格黏性和工资黏性,对产出缺口、通货膨胀预期、利率及工资之间动态关系采用高阶滞后DSGE模型建模,结果显示考虑价格黏性和工资黏性的DSGE模型对我国宏观经济波动拟合效果较好,通货膨胀预期冲击对宏观经济变量影响不可忽视,滞后时间为1年到2年半,我国工资黏性特征不如价格黏性特征明显,调整时间为半年,货币政策冲击对通货膨胀和利率影响较快,通货膨胀预期冲击、劳动供给替代弹性冲击和货币政策冲击能够解释宏观经济变量波动的大部分,央行采用价格型货币政策工具需考虑预期效应,政策制定应及时发布消息,提高政策透明度,从而增强政策的长期有效性。

Based on the DSGE model of Mankiw and etc.( 2007),the paper takes full account of price stickiness and wage stickiness,and uses the higher order lag DSGE model to evaluate the dynamic relationship between the output gap,inflation expectations,interest rates and wages,the results show that considering the price viscous and sticky wages DSGE model fit better macroeconomic volatility,the inflation expectations impact on macroeconomic variables cannot be ignored,the lag time of one year to two and a half years,wage stickiness characteristic features of price stickiness is not so obvious in our country,with the adjusting time of six months. The monetary policy shocks impact on inflation and interest rates is quick,inflation shock impact,the labor supply elasticity of substitution shocks and monetary policy shocks can explain the volatility of macroeconomic variables. The central bank mostly uses the price-based monetary policy instruments to consider the expected effects,policymaking and promptly announcing policies,thereby enhancing the transparency and long-term effectiveness of policies.