中国住宅销售价格对居民消费的影响

Abstract

本文通过构建一个两类消费者的动态局部均衡模型，推导出总消费的欧拉方程，从而分析了中国住宅销售价格与居民消费之间的均衡关系。基于1998—2011年31个省（直辖市）的年度面板数据，本文采用Pesaran（2006）提出的CCE方法对参数进行估计。实证研究的结果表明，房价的持续上涨对居民消费存在显著的抑制作用。在其他条件不变的情况下，非住宅类消费对住宅价格变化的弹性为-0．021。该数值虽小，但考虑到房价增长率的标准差（32．27）要大于消费增长率的标准差（5．89），房价对消费有较大的负面影响。按全国住宅类商品房销售价格年均增长率8．60％计算，每年该房价增长率带来的消费增长率减少0．181％，1999-2012年累计减少的消费增长率为2．32％。本文的相关稳健性检验证实通货膨胀率的计算方式及利率指标的不同选取均不改变房价上涨对消费的抑制性影响。最后，本文结合结构模型对中国房地产市场负财富效应的原因进行了探讨。

We empirically study the relationship between housing prices and non-housing consumption in China. We build a dynamic local equilibrium model of heterogeneous agents and derive the Euler equation determining aggregate consumption. We then estimate the cor- responding parameters with the panel data of China. The empirical results demonstrate that the increase of housing prices has a significantly negative impact on household consumption. Holding the other conditions unchanged, if house prices increase 1%, the consumption will decrease by 0. 0210%. As the sales price for residual real estate increase 8.6% annually, our results indicate that the increase of house prices has contributed to the 2.32% decline of the aggregate consumption from 1999 to 2012. Finally, we discuss the underlying reasons of the negative wealth effect of house prices.