中国宏观经济下行区间的冲击来源及其差异性分析

Abstract

本文基于DSGE模型的分析框架,首先利用反事实方法比较分析了1992-2015年中国3次经济下行区间冲击来源的异同,然后考察了冲击来源异同的原因。研究表明:(1)前两轮经济下行区间的主要冲击来源为负向偏好冲击;(2)最近一轮经济下行区间的主要冲击为负向全要素生产率冲击,而负向全要素生产率冲击主要来源于"人口红利"渐逝、人力资本增速趋缓以及投资结构失衡等因素。

With the recent decrease in China's economic growth rate,the macroeconomic fundamentals exhibit a new trend.Hence,analyzing the effect of macroeconomic fundamental changes on China's recent economic downturn has practical implication to better understand China's current economics.Based on the framework of New Keynesian DSGE model,this paper attempts to study shock resources during China's three economic downturns from 1992 to 2014,and to investigate the causes of different shocks resources.According to a counterfactual analysis,the main shock resource of the most recent economic downturn was the adverse total factor productivity shock,while that of the last two downturn periods was the adverse preference shock.We attribute the adverse total factor productivity shock to the disappearance of demographic dividend,the gradual slowdown of human capital growth and the unbalance of investment structure.