The Analysis of China-South Korea FTA Impact on Japan's Exports to China
- 台研院－已发表论文 
本文运用全球贸易分析模型GTAP对中韩FTA生效后5个阶段中国对韩国的关税减让给日本货物产品向中国出口带来的影响进行分析。研究发现:中韩FTA将给日本货物产品出口带来冲击,使其在中国的出口份额被韩国挤占,其中制造业遭受的冲击将最为严重,农产品、畜产品、渔业、加工食品及采矿业虽然也会受到影响,但影响较小;另一方面,中韩FTA虽并不会立即给日本带来显著的负面影响,但随着中国对韩国降税力度的加大,日本受到的负面冲击将日益凸显,中韩FTA生效的前10年,尤其是第5年至第10年间日本出口将遭受的冲击尤为严重,而后10年则相对较小,尤其是第15年至第20年间出口减少幅度不大,对多数产品的出口近乎无影响。This Paper uses GTAP model to analyze the impact of Japan 's exports to China in five- stages while reducing tariff to Korea by China as China- South Korea FTA takes effect. The study finds that there are negative impacts on Japan's exports to China as China- South Korea FTA takes effect. It results that Korea would occupy Japan 's exports share markets of China,in which manufacturing would suffer the worst effects. However,the impact on agricultural products,animal products,fishery,processed foods and mining not so serious. Further,the negative impacts of Japan's exports to China by China- South Korea FTA would not show significant immediately. However,the negative impacts of Japan's exports to China would be significant only China increase the range of tax reduction on Korea,for the first decade of China- South Korea FTA effectiveness,especially 5 ~ 10 years,the export of Japan would suffer greatly. However,the impact is relatively small for the later decade; especially 15 ~ 20 years the Japan 's export to China would not much decreased. The export for the majority of products can be approximately considered as no decrease.