EVALUATION OF TYPHOON DISASTER RISK IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE
- 厦门大学－已发表论文 
利用1951—2010的台风数据和2010年人口及统计数据，结合国内灾害系统理论和国外通用风险评估公式，对广东省各市台风灾害风险进行评估，并应用GIS技术分析各个指标的分级分布情况。通过建立台风路径缓冲区，并根据计算灾次比的方法评估台风灾害的危险性；利用各市总人口数和生产总值表示暴露程度，选取5个指标分别表征人口和社会资产两种承灾体的敏感性；再结合暴露度和敏感性得到承灾体脆弱性指标；最终由灾害危险性和承灾体脆弱性两项指标综合计算出广东省各市的台风灾害风险性。结果表明：台风对广东省的影响程度总体上呈现沿海向内陆递减的趋势，粤西沿海台风危险性最高；广州、湛江人口暴露度最高，广州、深圳社会经济资产暴露度最高；人口敏感性指数等级高的城市人口总抚养比值高、女性所占人口比值高、人均可支配收入相对较低，社会经济敏感性指数等级高的城市往往经济发展水平相对较低；湛江、汕尾等城市人口数目多和人口敏感性高从而人口脆弱性很高，广州、东莞等经济发达的城市虽然社会经济敏感性低，但高的暴露值导致其脆弱性值很高。根据评估结果，当前广东省台风灾害风险值最高的城市为湛江、广州和佛山。The typhoon disaster risk in Guangdong province is evaluated according to a general risk assessment formula by using typhoon data during 1951-2010 and population and statistical data of 2010. GIS technique is also applied to analyze the classification and distribution of each index. We evaluate typhoon disaster risk by establishing typhoon path buffers and calculate the typhoon hazard index. The population and GDP are used to indicate disaster exposure. Five indicators are selected to characterize susceptibility of two receptors, population and social assets. Then the vulnerable index is calculated by using the above results. Finally, the risk of typhoon disasters of Guangdong Province can be calculated by the index of hazard and the index of vulnerability. The results show that： the impact of Typhoon on Guangdong Province shows a decreasing trend from western Guangdong coastal to the inland, and coastal typhoon risk is the highest; exposure of population in Guangzhou and Zhanjiang belong to the highest level, while exposure of economic and social assets in Guangzhou and Shenzhen is classified into the highest level; cities with higher level population susceptibility index tend to have higher dependency ratio, women population ratio and lower disposable income per capita; high value of social assets susceptibility index means relatively low level of economic advancement; with high susceptibility, population of Zhanjiang and Shanwei is the most vulnerable, and the well-developed cities, such as Guangzhou and Dongguan, though their susceptibility index is relatively low, have very high exposure value so that the vulnerability indexes are relatively high. According to the evaluation, the current three cities with the highest typhoon risk are Zhanjiang, Guangzhou and Foshan. The result of this risk assessment can provide decision support for disaster risk management in Guangdong Province.