On Forecasting. and Adjustment to Housing Price in Xiamen Based on ARIAM Model
- 厦门大学－已发表论文 
中国的房地产市场经历了2010年限购,2014年解除限购,2016年的再次限购的政策调整。厦门住宅价格一路攀升,增幅超越了北、上、广、深,位居全国第一,引发全国关注,对厦门住宅价格的预测和调控的研究有一定现实意义。本文拟通过对厦门自2012年元月-2016年10月的平均住宅价格数据,结合spss17.0版软件,用时间序列分析中的ARIMA（1,2,1）模型,对2016年10月以后的厦门住宅价格预测及调控进行研究。The real estate market in China experienced a various policy adjustment in the past few years -- the house purchase limitation in 2010, the release of house purchase limitation in 2014, the house purchase limitation again in 2016. The housing price in Xiamen has increased gradually and the growing rate has surpassed that in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, coming in first in China, which arouses attention all over the country. Hence, the study on the forecasting and adjustment to the housing price in Xiamen is of realistic significance. The paper applies ARIAM model to make a research on the average housing prices in Xiamen from January 2012 to October 2016, tending to forecast the housing price after Oc, tober 2016 in Xiamen.