A Long-term Trend Analysis of China's Foreign Trade in the Context of Factors-cost Rising
- 经济学院－已发表论文 
本文在近年来广义要素成本上涨的背景下,利用HS98章商品2010-2014年的月度数据,对我国出口商品的国际市场竞争力进行中长期动态预测。文中选取显示性比较优势指数(RCA)作为表征贸易商品竞争力的度量指标,结合要素成本上涨的背景,利用马尔可夫链动态模型,对我国外贸的中长期趋势进行预测。研究发现:短期内在广义要素成本上升的背景下,第一产业的大部分商品及第二产业中纺织原料及纺织品受到较大冲击;从长期趋势来看,第一产业维持了稳定的比较优势,而对于第二产业其影响效应分化,纺织原料及纺织品、轻工业产品、陶瓷及玻璃制品的国际竞争优势呈明显下跌趋势,而矿产品、普通和精密机械、木制品和纸制品的国际市场竞争力并无明显变化,第二产业受到的长期影响要比短期更显著。Considering rising generalized factors costs, we used monthly data from 2010 to 2014 of primary and secondary industries to study the dynamic prediction of impacts of increasing factor costs on international competitiveness of China. We select the revealed comparative advantage index as a measure of competitiveness, and we first analyzed the short-term static effects of rising costs on both industries and then utilized Markov chain model to explore the long-term dynamic relationship. The research shows that the rise in generalized factor costs has significant effect on most commodities of primary industry and textiles and textile products of the secondary industry in the short term. In the long term, the primary industry could maintain its comparative advantages without great changes but its effects would be different for the secondary industry. International competitive advantages of textiles and textile articles, light industrial products, ceramic and glassware embody obvious downward trend, but the international market competitiveness of capital-intensive or capital exporting products, such as minerals, general and precision machinery, wood and paper products,would not be much affected by the increasing factor costs, so the long-term impact on the secondary industry would be more significant than the short-term.