The Economic Effects of Postponing Retirement——Numerical Examination Based on General Equilibrium Model
- 经济学院－已发表论文 
以世代交叠模型为框架,根据学历和年龄确定个人生产效率并构建一个可计算的一般均衡模型,用于探讨中国延迟退休年龄政策的若干经济学效应。在此基础上提出"一步到位式"、"渐进式"、"渐进式+最低工龄"等3种延迟退休年龄的备选方案,并以该模型对这3种方案进行分析和比较。研究认为,采用渐进式延迟退休并且规定最低工作年限方案具有较好的经济效应。该方案可以长期有效提高人均产出并减轻养老金支付压力。Based on the overlapping generation model as a framework,personal production efficiency is determined according to education background and age,and a computable general equilibrium model is built to explore the economic effects of China's policy in postponing the retirement age. Based on this,three alternative plans on delaying the retirement age with"one- step","progressive steps"and"progressive steps + minimum working age"are proposed. Analysis and comparisons are made on the three alternative plans by using the model. Research finds out that the plan of raising the retirement age in progressive steps with regulations on minimum working age has the best economic effects. The plan can effectively improve per capita production and alleviate the pressure to pay old pension in the long run.