Prediction of Mortality and Years of Life Lost due to Liver Cancer in Residents in Xiamen
- 公共卫生－已发表论文 
目的探讨厦门市居民肝癌死亡的变化趋势,为厦门市肝癌综合防治工作提供依据。方法收集整理2004-2013年厦门市居民肝癌死亡资料计算死亡率、平均减寿年数(AYLL)、死亡率年均变化百分比等评价指标,用GM(1,1)模型对死亡率和AYLL进行预测。结果 2004-2013年,厦门市居民因肝癌死亡率31.95/10万,年均下降2.0%,男性死亡率是女性的3.81倍;AYLL为16.74年,存在下降趋势。GM(1,1)模型预测值与实际值平均相对误差2.27%~3.71%,预测2014-2018年肝癌死亡率和AYLL值均有所下降。结论 GM(1,1)模型可用于厦门市居民肝癌死亡率和减寿趋势预测,未来肝癌死亡虽有下降趋势,但仍呈高位态势,仍要重视肝癌的预防控制工作。Objective To explore the trend of mortality and years of life lost due to liver cancer in residents in Xiamen,so as to provide the basis data on preventing liver cancer in Xiamen. Methods The data of residents in Xiamen dying of liver cancer from 2004 to 2013 was collected and cleared up to calculate the evaluation indexes including the mortality rate, the average potential life lost( AYLL), and the average percentage change( APC) of mortality rate. GM( 1,1) model was used to predict the future mortality and AYLL. Results From 2004 to 2013, the average mortality rate of liver cancer in residents in Xiamen was 31. 95 per 100000 persons.,of which in male was 3. 81 times as that in female. The APC was 2. 0%. The AYLL,which was16. 74 years,had decline trend from 2004 to 2013. The mean absolute percentage errors between observed values and fitted values were 2. 27%- 3. 71%. The mortality rate and AYLL of liver cancer in residents in Xiamen would decrease from 2014 to 2018.Conclusion GM( 1,1) model could be used to forecast the trend of mortality and years of life lost due to liver cancer in residents in Xiamen. Though there is descending trend of mortality and years of life lost in future, the value of mortality is still high.So we still have to pay more attentions on preventing and curing of liver cancer.