Sino-ASEAN Free Trade Area: A Tortuous Journey
本文从主客观两个方面分析并预测中国东盟自由贸易区谈判与运作的艰巨性与曲折性。文章认为,阻滞10+1谈判与运作的因素主要缘于自由贸易区的参与主体在政治体制与意识形态、经济发展水平与发展机制、生产力要素等方面所存在的巨大差异,以及错综复杂的区域内国际关系。文章还认为,由中国政府率先提出的在2010年建成中国东盟自由贸易区的主要目的是在21世纪新的国际政治经济条件下,实现中国与周边邻国更为密切的“睦邻”关系。为实现10+1对中国政治意义的最大化,文章对规避10+1运作的负面影响提出了一系列建议。This paper analyzes and prognosticates, from the aspects of subjective and objective factors, the difficulties and tortuosity that are confronted in the process of negotiations as well as operations of Sino-ASEAN FTA to realize its goal in the year of 2015. The restrictive factors are the gigantic differences in political system and ideology,economic develpopmental level and mechanism, and the productive factors of all the participants,as well as the intricate international relations within the region. The paper holds that the major purpose of Chinese government for establishing Sino-ASEAN FTA aims at promoting 揼ood-neighbor relations?with ASEAN member countries under the context of China抯 Entry to WTO and the international political and economic dilemma in the 21st century. Therefore, Political significance of Sino-ASEAN FTA for the Chinese government surpasses its economic significance. Some suggestions are raised with an aim to evading some side effects that might be brought forth by the launching of Sino-ASEAN FTA.