Conditions for Sustainable Development of Old-age Insurance System in China
- 经济学院－已发表论文 
养老保险的可持续发展,就是在养老保险缴费率保持在人们可承受限度内的前提下,使替代率基本不变或适当提高。随着人口日益老龄化,现收现付制难以维持及持续发展。在完全积累制下,只有当投资报酬率适当增长时,养老保险才是可以持续的。我国养老保险可持续发展的前提条件是:解决转轨成本、实现个人账户的"实账"运行、实现个人账户积累基金的投资收益率适度增长。On the premise of limiting the contributing rate of oldage insurance to a generally acceptable amount and maintaining a stable replacement rate or a moderate growth, we can ensure a sustainable development of oldage insurance system. With the aging of the population, it is difficult to sustain and develop the system of accounting on the cash basis. Under the fully funded pension system, only if the investment return rate grows moderately can the oldage insurance system be ensured of sustainable development. The precondition of this lies in the resolution of transition cost, realizing the "realaccount" function of personal accounts, and trying to achieve a moderate increase in the investment return rate of the accumulated funds of personal accounts.