汇率制度改革对人民币均衡汇率调整速度的影响

Abstract

本文首先运用行为均衡汇率模型(BEER)和协整理论,分别测算1994年~2006年和1994年~2005年第2季度的人民币均衡汇率水平,得到相关变量的协整关系式和误差修正模型。笔者通过比较发现:2005年7月21日起,我国实行的新汇率制度可以显著加快汇率回到均衡水平的速度,调整速度从过去每季度调整0.21增加到现在的每季度调整0.35,这说明我国这次汇率制度改革是十分成功的,可以显著加快人民币汇率回到均衡水平的步伐。

This paper firstly applies BEER and cointegration theory to measure RMB equilibrium exchange rate of RMB in 1994—2006 and the second quarters of the years from 1994—2005 and gets the cointegration relationship of relevant variables and the error correction model.Comparing the results, the authors find that the reform of China's exchange rate system in July 21st 2005 increases adjustment rate from 0.21 to 0.35, which shows that this reform of China's exchange rate system is very successful and can accelerate the pace for the exchange rate of RMB to return to the equilibrium level.