Cash Flow and Risk in Investment Projects: Calculation and Measurement
- 继续教育－已发表论文 
如何有效地估计投资项目的净现金流量及其相应风险 ,是做好投资决策分析的关键。投资项目的净现金流量本质上是一服从正态分布的连续随机变量。利用相关的统计和信度分析方法 ,可以推出净现金流量的分布参数 ,并最终导出净现金流量和风险度量的计算公式The key to successful decision-making for investment lies in effectively calculating net cash flow (NCF) and measuring risks in investment projects. In essence NCF in investment projects is a normally distributed, continuous, random variable. Using the methodologies of statistical analysis and belief function of evidence theory, this paper proposes a new method of locating NCF distributed parameters, which lead to a formula for NCF calculation and risk measurement.