政策调控、杠杆率与区域房地产价格

Abstract

杠杆率过高被认为是房价持续上涨的重要原因之一。杠杆效应表现为,杠杆率越高,房地产价格的波动越大,越有可能出现"价量齐升"的局面。我国三类城市的房地产价格波动都表现出"杠杆效应",但各不相同。一线城市和二线城市的杠杆率均较高。其中,一线城市的高杠杆率主要表现为房地产开发商的贷款比重最高,二线城市的高杠杆率主要表现为个人消费者的个人贷款比例最高。由此可预期,政策调控对一线城市的房价影响最深,但是房价的表现并非单边的;对二线城市房价的单边影响最大,提高首付比例和贷款利率都将导致二线城市的房价有所下调;对三线城市的房价影响最小。High leverage ratio is considered one of the reasons why property prices continue to increase. The leverag eeffect is such that the higher the leverage ratio is, the bigger the price fluctuation, and the greater possibility that price and volume go up simultaneously. This phenomenon has occurred in all Chinese cities, but the leverage effect varies across regions. In both Tier I and Tier II cities, the leverage ratio is relatively high. However, in Tier I citie s high leverage ratio means that developers have the highest rate of bank loans whereas in Tier II cities personal loans account for the highe strate. It follows that policy adjustment exerts the greatest in fluence on housing prices in Tier I cities, but the trend of prices in these cities does not go straight up or straigh t down; that in Tier II cities, policy adjustment has the strongest downward impact on housing prices; that increasing down payment and interest rate of bank loans leads to decrease of property prices; and that policy adjustment has the least impact on housing prices in Tier III cities.