货币政策与财政政策的分区域产业效应比较

Abstract

在具有总量效应的同时,货币政策和财政政策在产业效应方面各自表现如何?本文运用1990-2008年东、中、西部地区的动态面板数据模型进行实证分析,结果显示:东部与中部地区的货币政策和财政政策都具有产业效应,而西部地区货币政策和财政政策的效应均不理想,同时,货币政策和财政政策对三次产业的效应都存在明显的区域性。并且,结合相关理论,文章从产业和区域两个层面进行实证分析,揭示出产业间在增量资本产出率和政府扶持力度以及区域间在银行集中度和基础设施投资方面存在的差异,是造成这种结果的主要原因。This paper is aim to figure out whether monetary policy and fiscal policy have the industrial effect. Using the panel data of the East，Middle and West from 1990 to 2008，the paper conducts regional comparison and reaches several primary conclusions. By the dynamic panel data model we find that fiscal policy in the East，monetary and fiscal policy in the Middle all show industrial effect，whereas in the West the effects of monetary policy and fiscal policy are not obvious. Additionally，the effects of monetary and fiscal policy on all the industry have the regional differences. Further，after analyzing different characteristics among the three industries and regions，we explain the main reasons why the effects exist.