汇率调整与中美经贸关系改善

Abstract

本文选取1995-2009年的季度数据作为样本,借助协整分析、误差修正模型以及Granger因果检验等方法,从中美贸易收支和美在华FDI两方面,就人民币实际汇率对中美经贸关系的影响进行了实证研究。结果表明:长期内,虽然人民币汇率调整在一定程度上可以改善中美经贸关系,但人民币升值并不能改善美中贸易逆差,而短期内的影响更不显著,两国贸易收支和美在华FDI的收入效应也并不明显。因此,改善中美经贸关系的解决之道在于转变我国经济发展模式和外贸发展战略;逐步完善汇率制度,加快人民币国际化进程等。 This paper explores the empirical analysis on the impact of RMB real exchange rate on Sino- US economic and trade relations, from the two aspects of bilateral trade and FDI, based on Co- integration test, ECM and Granger test with the sample of quarterly data from 1995 to 2009. The results show that the adjustment of RMB ex change ratewill improve on Sino- US economic and trade relations to some extent in the long term, but such impact is not significant in the short term. Meanwhile, both the bilateral trade and the U.S. FDI haven. t income effects in China, which indicate that Sino- US trade imbalance couldn. t be solved essentially by the adjustment of RMB exchange rate alone. The key points lay on changing China. seconomic development pattern and trade strategies, improving the exchange rate system gradually and acce-lerating internationalization of RMB, etc.