我国M_2/GDP畸高影响因素实证分析

Abstract

M2/GDP通常用来衡量一个国家的经济货币化水平。近年来,我国的M2/GDP畸高并逐年上升,M2/GDP水平不仅大于发达国家,还远远高于类似的发展中国家。文章在综合前人的研究结果的基础上,通过建立多元线性回归模型对我国M2/GDP过高的影响因素进行实证的分析。实证分析表明,我国M2/GDP畸高的原因是:金融市场不完善,总储蓄率高居不下,广义货币流通速度急剧下降以及国家债务负担沉重。在此基础上,文章将提出遏制M2/GDP风险的建议与措施,并对实证研究的贡献与不足之处进行总结。

M_2/GDP is commonly used to analyze the level of an country's monetarization level.Recently,the M_2/GDP of China has reached an unusually high point,which is not only higher than developed counties,but also higher than developing countries in the similar seedtime.The article would try to build a multiple linear regression model to analyze the factors which cause the high M_2/GDP in China.The empirical study reveals the factors that cause the unusually high M_2/GDP are: undeveloped financial market,high deposit ratio,low velocity of money circulation and heavy national debt.On the basis of above analysis,the article would propose practical countermeasure and suggestions to keep M_2/GDP in limits,and finally summarize the innovations and limitations of the empirical study.