盈余质量、分析师预测经验与现金流预测准确性
Earnings Quality, Analysts’ Forecast Experience and Cash Flow Forecast Accuracy
Abstract
证券分析师作为证券市场重要的信息中介，通过加工公开信息和透露私人信息，缓解证券市场信息不对称。在我国分析师现金流预测始于2002年，随后预测频数和频率逐年递增。此前国内外研究多着眼于盈余预测，对现金流预测仍局限于检验其有用性和动机，鲜有提及质量特征及差异成因，现有模型和变量体系仍十分简单。 基于信息需求理论，本文研究支持如下逻辑：投资者对企业盈余质量的信息需求决定分析师现金流预测的动机和收益；经验积累扩大了分析师相对于公众的理性优势，降低其预测的信息成本。准确性是现金流预测质量的重要特征，受分析师决策的成本效益水平影响。故本文从盈余质量和分析师经验展开对现金流预测准确性的实证研究。 本文选... As important information intermediaries, securities analysts apply their professional skills to improve the market efficiency and ease information asymmetries. From 2002, more and more analysts have published cash flow forecasts. Previous researches discuss more about analysts' earnings forecasts while results of cash flow forecasts are still limited. Existing articles about cash flow forecast are...