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dc.contributor.author吴海霞
dc.contributor.authorWU Hai-xia
dc.contributor.author葛岩
dc.contributor.authorGE Yan
dc.contributor.author史恒通
dc.contributor.authorSHI Heng-tong
dc.contributor.author韩树蓉
dc.contributor.authorHAN Shu-rong
dc.date.accessioned2017-04-11T08:32:26Z
dc.date.available2017-04-11T08:32:26Z
dc.date.issued2017-04
dc.identifier.citation厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2017,240(2):138-148zh_CN
dc.identifier.issn0438-0460
dc.identifier.urihttps://dspace.xmu.edu.cn/handle/2288/127708
dc.description吴海霞,陕西师范大学国际商学院讲师;葛岩,中央财经大学财政学院讲师;史恒通,陕西师范大学国际商学院讲师;韩树蓉,陕西师范大学国际商学院讲师。zh_CN
dc.description.abstract【中文摘要】传统观点认为,粮食价格波动是市场供求、宏观政策及粮食自身属性等因素共同作用的结果,但近年来其解释力备受争议,而粮食日益增强的金融属性逐渐受到关注。在粮食金融化视角下,基于2004年9月至2016年2月各变量的月度数据,通过构建玉米价格波动的金融化驱动体系,利用ARDL模型可遴选出玉米价格波动显著的金融化影响因素。实证结果表明:期货市场、国际石油价格和人民币兑美元的汇率是影响玉米现货价格波动最显著的力量,同时敏感性检验也验证了这一结论的稳健性。调控玉米价格不仅要关注传统供需力量,还需强化对期货市场和汇率市场的监管。 【Abstract】Conventional view holds that grain price fluctuations are induced by market supply and demand, macroeconomic policy and grain itself. But the explanatory power has been controversial in recent years, with the financial property of grain drawing increased attention. From the perspective of financialization of grains, and on the basis of the monthly data of each variable in the period from September 2004 to February 2016, we constructed a financialization driving system for maize price fluctuations and identified the significant financial driving factors for the fluctuations using the ARDL model.The empirical results indicate that the futures market, international oil prices, and the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar are the most significant factors influencing the spot price fluctuations of corn. The sensitivity test has verified the robustness of this conclusion. Therefore, to control corn prices, it is necessary to not only pay attention to the traditional supply and demand forces, but also to intensify the regulation of the futures market and the foreign exchange market.zh_CN
dc.description.sponsorship国家自然科学基金青年基金项目“金融因素对玉米价格波动的传导机制及预测效果研究:基于粮食金融化视角”(71603153);陕西省社科基金重点项目“供给侧改革背景下陕西玉米全产业链价值融合及增值创新模式研究”(2016D003);中央高校基本科研业务经费专项资金项目“ 汽油价格对原油价格波动的短期与长期非对称性响应研究”(15SZYB18);陕西省软科学项目“陕西农业碳排放演化机理及减排策略研究”(2015KRM064)zh_CN
dc.language.isozhzh_CN
dc.publisher厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版)编辑部zh_CN
dc.subject玉米zh_CN
dc.subjectcornzh_CN
dc.subject金融因素zh_CN
dc.subjectfinancial factorszh_CN
dc.subject传导效应zh_CN
dc.subjecttransmission effectzh_CN
dc.subjectAEDL模型zh_CN
dc.subjectARDL modelzh_CN
dc.title农产品金融化对玉米价格波动的传导效应研究zh_CN
dc.title.alternativeThe Transmission Effect of Agricultural Financilization on Corn Priceszh_CN
dc.typeJournal Paperzh_CN


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