Evaluation of losses in bay environmental capacity based on numerical simulation—a case study of sea reclamation in Tong’an Bay, Xiamen
- 海发院－已发表论文 
[摘要]：基于海湾环境容量价值影响因素的分析,采用环境经济学的影子工程法,结合水动力数值模型及其与污染物扩散的耦合模型,建立了 围填海导致的海湾环境容量价值损失的预测评估模型和方法,并以厦门同安湾为例,对同安湾4 个围填海规划方案可能造成的环境容量价 值的损失进行了预测评估.结果表明,方案1~方案4 围填海面积依次为1.98,7.73,9.38,19.24km2,围填海造成的环境容量的损失依次为 12281.3,48418.6,60706.6,132800.1 万元/a,单位面积的损失依次为62.03,62.64,64.72,69.02 元/(m2⋅a).围填海活动带来的环境成本不容忽视.基 于评估结果,针对厦门围填海的现状提出了相关的政策建议.[Abstract]:Based on an analysis of factors affecting the value of bay environmental capacity, a model evaluating the lost value of bay environmental capacity caused by sea reclamation was established using Shadow Project Method in environmental economics combined with hydrodynamic numerical model and hydrodynamic force-contaminant diffusion coupling model. The evaluation model was then applied to a case study of four planned sea reclamation projects in Tong’an Bay, Xiamen. The lost value of environmental capacity caused by projects 1 to 4 would be 1.23×108, 4.84×108, 6.07×108, 1.33×109 Yuan/a, respectively; and the lost value per unit area would be 62.03, 62.64, 64.72, 69.02 Yuan /(m2⋅a), respectively. These environmental costs should be carefully examined in relevant project evaluations. Policy recommendations were presented according to the study results and current status of sea reclamation in Xiamen.