Risk Assessment of Accidental Oil Spill from Ships in the Luoyuan Bay
- 海发院－已发表论文 
[摘要]：基于罗源湾远期油轮的发展预测，运用概率与数理统计方法计算出罗源湾海域未来 S 年中发生船舶溢油事故的概率基础值 为 0.361×10-4／S，进而对罗源湾船舶溢油风险进行预测评价，结果显示：罗源湾海域船舶溢油概率约为每 10 a 一次，每次产生的 溢油量约为 57.3 t 原油，经过一个潮周期，油膜面积理论估算值为 0.64 km2。针对罗源湾海域的实际情况，还提出了相应的风险防 范措施。[Abstract]:Based on the predicted number of ships and oil tankers in the Luoyuan Bay in the future, at first this paper estimates the foundational probability of shipping accident and then forecasts the risk of oil spill using methodologies of probability and mathematical statistics. The results indicate that the foundational probability would be 0.361×10-4/S in the next S years, and the oil spill accident would take place once every 10 years, and the oil spill quantity at one time would be 57.3 tons and the oil diffusion area would become 0.64 km2 after one tidal cycle. Finally, the paper puts forward some relevant measures for the risk prevention of oil spill in the Luoyuan Bay.