The Evaluation of Management Right Value of Scenic Spots——Based on the Research Perspective of Real Options
- 管理学院－已发表论文 
景区经营权价值评估是实现我国景区经营权合理流转的关键,但以收益还原法为主流的现行方法并不能准确地评估景区经营权价值。通过研究,本文发现,引入实物期权概念能够提升景区经营权价值评估的准确性。本文以产权视角为切入点,通过景区经营权实物期权的动态和静态特征研究景区经营权的期权价值形成、演变机理,以冠豸山国家重点风景名胜区为例,初步实证了实物期权视角下的景区经营权价值评估,并得出如下结论:(1)景区经营权价值是一种依托于旅游资源的产权价值,其价值评估的实质是资本化景区旅游资源开发权利的价值,产权视角下的景区经营权,本质上是一种按年度执行的多期嵌套实物期权,旅游资源是其标的资产;(2)基于实物期权的景区经营权价值形成表现为:景区投资开发过程中,投资柔性给景区预期旅游收益与投资开发成本之间带来的差额变动;(3)景区经营权的实物期权特征是一个动态的变动过程,各阶段的期权价值呈现先增后减的变化态势,期权价值在经营权到期日将变为零;(4)融入实物期权法较单纯采用收益还原法更加科学,评估结果更为客观,实际参考价值更大;(5)在构建单一期权条件下的景区经营权期权价值评估模型的基础上,以冠豸山风景名胜区为例,通过与现有评估方法进行对比研究,进一步验证了实物期权理论在景区经营权价值评估中的应用价值。The transfer of management right of scenic spots is a typical phenomenon of Chinese tourism industry,and the assessment of managerial right value is the key issue in the transformation process of property right.After years of academic research,the Income Capitalization Approach has been mainly used in the value evaluation of management right.However,it is informed that the Income Capitalization Approach which is the mainstream of current methods can not completely solve the problems of the value evaluation of management right of scenic spots.Through research we find that the Real Option Theory is more helpful in the value evaluation of management right.Based on this,using the perspective of property right as the breakthrough point,this paper analyzes the dynamic and static real option characteristics of the managerial right,expounds the formation and evolution mechanism of the managerial right value of scenic spots,and makes a national scenic spot of GuanZhai Mountain as example,preliminary analyzing the value assessment of managerial right based on the perspective of real options.Based on the abovementioned analysis,the paper draws the following conclusions:( 1) The managerial right value of scenic spots is a kind of property value relying on tourism resources,and it is essence of the value evaluation that capitalizing the right value of tourism resources development.( 2) With the perspective of property right,the managerial right of scenic spot can be regarded as a kind of multiphase nested real option,and tourism resources are the underlying assets.( 3) The performance of option value of managerial right is determined by the flexibility which increases or compensate the investor`s profit,the managerial right value of scenic spot based on the real option value is manifested as the difference between the expected tourism income and investment cost.( 4) The real option characteristics of managerial authority is a dynamic process,the option value of each phase will first increase to a maximum value and then decrease to zero when the managerial right is over.( 5) The method by introducing real option is better than Income Capitalization Approach,which is more objective,more realistic and the evaluation results is also more reference.( 6) Using the option value assessment model of managerial right based on the condition of single option,and taking the GuanZhai Mountain for example,we calculate the managerial right value of GuanZhai Mountain,The result of the calculation is 207.5 million Yuan,the option value of managerial right of GuanZhai Mountain is 112.5 million Yuan.This result is 25.5 million Yuan more than the results( 182 million Yuan) calculated by traditional methods.Furthermore,the paper validates the application value of real option theory in the assessment of managerial right value of the scenic spot under uncertainty with a comparative study with the existing assessment methods( Travel Cost Method,Contingent Valuation Method and Income Capitalization Approach).In addition,we discuss the problem of the fluctuation of the underlying asset price of managerial right of scenic spots,and provide some comments.What's more,this study only puts emphasis on the theoretical study and fundamental analysis,empirical assessment modeling remains to be further studied.In the development process of the Real Option Theory,the theory itself still exist some difficulties and challenges in the theory and practice research.To make the theory be a more applicable and accurate method of the value evaluation of managerial right and investment analysis tools,we still need to continue to improve and perfect the theory.