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dc.contributor.author刘林
dc.contributor.author朱孟楠
dc.date.accessioned2016-05-17T02:16:43Z
dc.date.available2016-05-17T02:16:43Z
dc.date.issued2013-10-12
dc.identifier.citation国际金融研究,2013,(318):21-33
dc.identifier.issn1066-1029
dc.identifier.otherGJJR201310003
dc.identifier.urihttps://dspace.xmu.edu.cn/handle/2288/102905
dc.description.abstract随着金融创新和金融深化的发展,货币已从单纯服务于实体经济的需要,转向同时满足实体经济和虚拟经济的要求,因而现实中货币就有实体经济和虚拟经济两个主要流向。货币过多流向实体经济可能会导致物价上涨,而过多流向虚拟经济又可能推高资产价格。基于这一思想,本文从货币供给和广义货币流通速度的角度,运用平滑过渡向量自回归模型,采用1996年以来的月度数据,研究了我国货币供给与物价水平的非线性动态关系。实证结果表明,货币供给对物价水平的影响依赖于经济所处的状态(即CPI上升机制和CPI下降机制),并且存在较强的非对称性;广义货币流通速度变动会带来物价水平同方向变动,且不依赖于经济所处的状态;面对物价变化,货币供给的变化存在非线性和非对称性。
dc.description.abstractWith the development of financial innovation and the deepening of financial depth, money not only serves the need of real economy, but the virtual economy.Hence money supply has two main flow channels, real economy and virtual economy.The inflation pressure will appear as long as the overflow of money to real economy, while if the money supply overflows to the virtual economy, the assets prices will rise.Based on these concepts, we apply smooth transition VAR model to investigate the nonlinear nexus between money and price level from the money supply and generalized velocity of money(also money demand).The results suggest that, the impact of money supply on price level is rely on the situation of changes of CPI, and the change of generalized velocity of money will lead the price level to change on the same direction, and there are significant nonlinear and asymmetric effects of changes of money supply to the change of CPI.Moreover, we propose some policy suggestions on inflation management from the results.
dc.description.sponsorship太原理工大学引进人才科研项目《汇率与资产价格的非线性关系研究》; 教育部哲学社会科学重大课题《我国外汇储备的科学管理及运用战略问题研究》(12JZD027)
dc.language.isozh_CN
dc.subject货币供给
dc.subject广义货币流通速度
dc.subject物价水平
dc.subjectLSTVAR
dc.subjectMoney Supply
dc.subjectGeneralized Velocity of Money
dc.subjectPrice Level
dc.subjectLSTVAR
dc.title货币供给、广义货币流通速度与物价水平——基于非线性LSTVAR模型对我国数据的实证研究
dc.title.alternativeMoney Supply, Generalized Velocity of Money and the Price Level in China——An Empirical Study Based on LSTVAR Model
dc.typeArticle


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